The Association of Directors of Adult Social Services (ADASS) has responded to new analysis from the Health Foundation that estimates that an additional £3.4 billion a year would be needed by 2028/29 to avoid adult social care services from declining.
Ahead of the UK Government’s forthcoming Spending Review, the Health Foundation says that this is the bare minimum required to prevent a further deterioration in services and to signal the government’s commitment to improving social care. Anything less than this, the organisation emphasises, risks more people going without the care they need, a decline in the quality of care, or a higher burden on unpaid carers.
This new analysis comes as the Casey Commission begins its review of adult social care, which aims to set out recommendations for longer-term reform. The government’s terms of reference state that the commission’s interim recommendations must work “within the fiscal constraints of Spending Review settlements”. The Health Foundation is therefore calling on the government to use the Spending Review to signal its commitment to improving adult social care by providing enough funding to shore up services.
The analysis estimates the funding required to meet social care needs over the next decade as people live longer, and to improve people’s care.
It estimates additional funding that would be needed under three scenarios, including £3.4 billion to meet the growing demand for social care and cover rising costs to employers in 2028/29. By 2034/35, this rises to £9.1 billion.
Secondly, £6.4 billion is required to meet demand, cover rising costs, and improve access to care in 2028/29. By 2034/35, this rises to £12.7 billion.
Finally, £8.7 billion is needed to meet demand, cover rising costs, improve access, and boost pay in 2028/29. By 2034/35, this rises to £15.4 billion.
Beyond investing in the current system, the Health Foundation says more fundamental reform is needed, including funding reform to provide people with fairer and more generous state protection against care costs.
In response to the Health Foundation’s findings, ADASS President, Jess McGregor said: “Adult social care at its best transforms lives. It enables millions of us to live the lives we want to lead, where we want live. It supports us to work; to socialise; to care and support family members; and to play an active role in our communities.
“However, we know the current social care system is not working for thousands of people and families across the country who are waiting for care, feeling forced to give up their jobs to care for relatives.
“This report shows that as we all live longer, and many of us with illness and disability, our need for good social care is increasing, but to improve quality, access and attract people to work in care and support, the Government needs to commit to ambitious reform and proper investment.
“We’d argue that building a network of care and support that works for everyone is a prize worth investing in. This will save money in the long term because good social care enables us to live safely and stay independent in our homes for longer, it reduces pressure on our NHS by preventing people reaching crisis and needing hospital and allows people to continue to work and care for others.
“As the Casey Commission kicks off and we await the Spending Review, now is the time for the Government to show courage and drive forward its agenda on adult social care to create a care system for older and disabled people that we can all be proud of and to create a legacy for future generations. Our new campaign #CareCantWait shows what is possible when we get care right for people, but we need to act now to ensure its there for all of us, when we need it.”
The Health Foundation has also published new analysis of current and historical spending on adult social care. It finds that social care has seen a funding boost since the pandemic, following a decade of cuts and stagnation. Despite this, real-term spending per person on social care was 2.6 percent lower in 2023/24 than in 2009/10, after adjusting for population ageing.
Hugh Alderwick, Director of Policy at the Health Foundation, commented: “The fiscal outlook means tough decisions for the Chancellor at the forthcoming Spending Review. Decades of political neglect mean the social care system is a threadbare safety-net, with too many people falling through the gaps.
“The Casey Commission aims to set out a plan for social care reform, but the government’s timeline for the Commission risks more fundamental changes being ducked or delayed, despite problems in the sector being well known, so we encourage the Commission to bring forward proposals for reform as soon as possible.
“The Spending Review is a chance for the government to signal its commitment to improving social care by providing a down payment on the investment needed for reform. This would help people get the support they need, ease the burden on unpaid carers, provide a fair wage to care workers, and support the NHS.”
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